Welcome to the Republican campaign for the Presidential nomination. You’ll find profiles of all of the potential candidates. Some are sure to run. Some will decline to run. Some are really dark horses. It’s quite possible to as I write this on March 7, 2011 someone who we don’t even consider a candidate will be the Republican nominee. Events seem to impose themselves on the best laid plans. In the words of Helmuth von Molkte: “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy”. What are some of the events that may shape the 2012 campaign? Here are a few:

• A government shutdown due to a lack of political agreement;

• Mideast and North African uprisings;

• An energy crisis due to the above uprisings;

• Failure to raise the debt due to a political roadblock by either party.

There will be additional crises as time moves on. New players may appear with each new crisis. We live in interesting times.

So far I would handicap the candidates this way:

• Sure to run in the primaries: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Haley Barbour, Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, Jr.
  
• A big maybe: Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, Bobby Jindal, Donald Trump, Ron Paul
  
• Dark horses: Rick Santorum
• Not on a bet: Chris Christie
• Really dark horses: Paul Ryan, Bob McDonnell